Indians in Victoria experience three times as much crime
I set out to discover whether media reports of violence against Indians in Australia are overblown or accurate. I was surprised by the result.
The recent murder of Nitin Garg lead to a flare-up from Indian media outlets about the dangers of violence towards Indian students studying in Australia. This follows on from a spate of similar activity in 2009. My belief was that a media frenzy has created the impression that Indians are disproportionately the victims of violent crime. Seeking to dispel this myth, I went in search of hard evidence.
To begin with, there were 43971 crimes against the person (PDF) in Victoria in 2008/09 (Victoria Police). For a population of 5,427,700 (ABS) that is a rate of 1 crime per 123 people. Police in Victoria say that 1447 people of Indian descent were victims of crime in the twelve months to October 2009. 2006 Census data puts the Indian-descended population of Victoria at 52,854 giving a figure of 1 crime per 37 Indians. Even allowing for population growth to 60,000 Indians in Australia, this seemingly leaves Indians in Victoria at three times the risk of crime as all other Victorians.
Now, there are all sorts of problems with my methodology. For instance:
- Are Indians in Victoria from the same demographic spread as the rest of Australia, or do they skew younger? (Younger people are more likely to be victims of violent crime.)
- Have I undercounted the Indian population of Victoria? Census data ought to include international students (of whom nearly 100,000 are Indians nationwide), but does it?
- When police are quoted saying 1447 Indians were “victims of crime”, is this the same as the official statistics’ category “crimes against the person” or does it include property crime as well?
What other mistakes have I made, and how much are they likely to affect the numbers? I wish I had better data, to begin with.
I’m not really in a position to answer any of these questions, but these numbers certainly opened my eyes. I think more details should be sought, but on the face of them I’m no longer convinced that violence against Indian students is a media beatup.
Jonathan:
I’m certainly not arguing that it is a media beatup, but am similarly looking for some sensible figures. There are a few more issues with your method:
The Census data gives the number of people in Victoria born in India, not the total of Indian descent. Many Australians of Indian descent were born in Australia, Fiji or Malaysia. (On the other hand, my uncle was born in India, but is not of Indian descent.)
The Census data should include students, but many accounts suggest that the there has been a big jump in the number of Indian students since 2006.
The 1447 number means different things according to different reports. Your link has it as “victims of crime” of “Indian descent” Another one has a believably more specific “assault and robbery victims”, but also suggests that it includes any victims “of Indian appearance”, which would include not only Indian descent, but also Pakistani, Sri Lankan, etc.
Without more clarity, it’s hard to say how the numbers are affected. The SMH interprets the 1525 for 2008/9 as an “Indian” robbery/assault rate of 1700 per 100,000, which is assuming an “Indian” population of around 90,000. This is quite an underestimate of the number of Victorians “of Indian appearance” (at least 125,000 listed some sort of sub-continental ancestry in the 2006 census), if that is relevant.
As for demographics as confounders, as well as age, it might be helpful to look at figures on a smaller geographical scale. How does the assault rate for Indians (by whatever definition) in Maribyrnong compare to others in Maribyrnong? This might be difficult to calculate, because people are not necessarily attacked in their area of residence.
12 January 2010, 12:39 amDave Bathur:
Was wondering the same thing the other day. My vision goes blurry when I look at numbers, but your approach seems to make sense. Seems there is a problem, but there’s no appetite for a public discussion because it’ll scare away more international education dollars. Terrific post.
11 February 2010, 3:51 am